The Morrison Report – February 26, 2012

Boyd…Boyd…No! Come on! The [freaking] password is Boyd!

So that was fun.

I know there is a tournament coming up and all, but let’s face it, from here until October the Timbers will rightfully be dominating this space. Sure, we’ll spout off about things around the league here and there, but this week represents perhaps our last best chance to cover topics from around the league.

Without much further adieu,[1] then, here are a half dozen predictions – some bold and some not so bold – for 2012.[2]

I. The New York Red Bulls will not make the Playoffs.[3]

Starting off bold – especially considering there will be staggeringly little competition for the five playoff spots in the tepid Eastern Conference. You would think a team featuring Thierry Henry, Juan Agudelo, Dane Richards, Dax McCarty, Rafa Marquez, Kenny Cooper,[4] and Luke Rodgers would figure to do well in its powder puff conference. What’s missing from that list?

Defense. That’s what’s missing. Okay, so the presumptive fullback combination Jan Gunnar Solli and Roy Miller is inoffensive – if perhaps uninspiring. And yes, New York has brought in a few defenders that may be able to step in and be serviceable in the center. But seriously, look at their roster and observe the number of guys on their defense that don’t have a picture. Then consider the guy they will be counting on to anchor their defense – Wilman Conde – is soon to be 30 and coming off pretty serious foot surgery. Uh oh. And don’t get me started on the goalkeeping situation. In the end this is a largely revamped defensive unit full of question marks.

But oh, did you hear they’re looking to add another geriatric DP in the summer transfer window? This isn’t going to end well. On the bright side, the Timbers own their SuperDraft pick for 2013.

II. Montreal will have a rough go of things in their maiden voyage.

I haven’t exactly minced words with what I think of Montreal’s offseason strategy. And as I look at their roster now I see a list of nice players – Davy Arnaud, Mike Fucito, Bobby Burling, Justin Mapp, Sanna Nyassi, Zarek Valentin, and certainly Donovan Ricketts – but nobody that jumps off the page. I think their midfield will be competitive, but they are sorely lacking up top right now.

The amount of youth on the roster lends itself to laying a foundation for the future, but the immediate future doesn’t look all too promising  Montreal promised to bring in a DP during the summer transfer window, but by July things may already be out of hand.

III. The Houston Dynamo will win the Supporters Shield.

I’ve said this before, but the great tragedy of the 2012 Playoffs was Brad Davis going down in the SKC series. I don’t know if Houston would have beaten Galaxy with him, but it certainly would have been a more watchable affair.

The Dynamo return everything of note from the team that caught fire at the end of 2012. Andre Hainault, Geoff Cameron, Bobby Boswell, and Corey Ashe may be the best backline in the league – to say nothing of more-than-capable netminder Tally Hall. Brad Davis will be the best midfielder in the league and will post a fourth-straight double digit assist season. Will Bruin will have a breakout season on the receiving end of Davis’s doorstep service.

All told, don’t be surprised if, after feasting on a platter full of Eastern creampuffs, the Dynamo win the Shield this year.

IV. Kelyn Rowe will be Rookie of the Year.

The MLS’s worst franchise will have its best rookie. Well, sort of. I don’t think Rowe is necessarily the best player of this year’s rookie class, but it appears as though he will be given a spot on the wings in 2012. With a perfectly respectable midfield of Benny Feilhaber, Shalrie Joseph, and likely Clyde Simms, the Revs may have the creative ability in midfield necessary to score some goals. I think Rowe will be the beneficiary of some of that, to enough of an extent that he’ll beat out Andrew Wenger for top billing.

Don’t get me wrong, New England will still stink, though.

V. It’s do or die time for Real Salt Lake. They will (almost) do.

Over the course of the last three years, Real Salt Lake have been the best franchise in MLS. Jason Kreis[5] and company built a core of talent that made RSL the deepest team in MLS. Here’s the problem, though, they’re getting on in years. Javi Morales is 32. Nat Borchers and Jamison Olave are 30.  Kyle Beckerman is about to turn 30. So are Chris Wingert and Alvaro Saborio. This group, though, has one more run in it. If Morales can successfully come back from his broken ankle, the Claret and Cobalt will put together one more deep playoff run before Father Time comes calling. Will they be able to capture that elusive second MLS Cup? No.[6]

VI. The Seattle Sounders will be a one-and-done…again.

After a successful 2011 regular season, many have their eyes on Seattle to make the next step toward being an MLS Cup contender. The Sounders have taken steps in the opposite direction, however. After earning a CONCACAF Champions League berth, the Sounders decided to unload depth in bringing in Eddie Johnson. That, combined with the unsettled status of Steve Zakuani and O’Brian White, leaves Seattle a bit thin for what promises to be a crazy early season full of matches in various competitions.[7]

Seattle has recovered from slow starts before, and they certainly have enough talent in the Starting XI to do so again, but in a West as packed as this one, dropping points early could doom the Rave Green and their customers to an unfavorable matchup in the first round and another early playoff exit.

Timbers Notes

• One interesting development of the past couple weeks has been the flipping of Eric Alexander and Franck Songo’o on the wings. Against Oregon State Eric Alexander reportedly spent most of his time on the right while Songo’o occupied the left. Early reports from training and the scrimmage are positive, although, considering both guys can play on either side of the field, it seems likely they will be moving around quite a bit. Regardless of exactly where they end up, the two of them seem to have developed a pretty firm hold on the two outside mid positions.
• The emergence of Alexander and Songo’o leaves Kalif Alhassan and Sal Zizzo – when he returns to full form – in a bit of a precarious position. Barring injuries, at least one of them will not get consistent minutes. Considering his potential, between the two of them Kalif is likely to get the better of the minutes, but Sal is a very legitimate MLS winger. If this pattern holds true – and Songo’o and Alexander hold down the wings – it’s easy to imagine a scenario in which Portland may shop Sal midseason.
• The second striker position has also become one of intrigue. Before the preseason, I sort of presumed Darlington Nagbe would step into the second striker role if he lost out on the right wing. By all means, that may still happen. But while Darlington has been slowed by a series of nagging injuries, Jorge Perlaza has put together a pretty nice camp. At this point it seems likely that Darlington will start 2012 where he was for much of 2011, as a frequent sub.
• Oh, and in a non-Timbers note, if you haven’t seen this already, read up on how excited Darren Mattocks is to score a preseason goal. He is the early favorite to win this year’s Victor Estupinan Sweepstakes.

Onward, Rose City!